VISAGE Diagnostic Workflows: Variance from Forecast

February 16, 2015 by

Editor’s Note: While VISAGE rebranded to VERDAZO in April 2016, we haven’t changed the VISAGE name in our previous blog posts. We’re proud of our decade of work as VISAGE and that lives on within these blogs. Enjoy.

This is the 3nd blog in a series about VISAGE Diagnostic Workflows

A big part of successfully navigating through difficult economic times is a predictable cash flow. The backbone of any cash flow is the ability to deliver your forecasted production. It also plays a big part in your ability to execute your plans, shareholder confidence and your reserves evaluation. This week’s blog focuses on a workflow that helps you identify and focus on the wells that are deviating the most from their production forecast. This involves integrating your field data capture system with your forecast/economics system (like Value Navigator or Entero Mosaic).

For details on the steps that make up a typical diagnostic workflow, check out our last two blogs:

Optimizing Production Performance

Optimizing Financial Performance

Let’s jump right into our workflow examples…

1) Identify and Prioritize

The chart below shows:

  • the Contextual Measure (on the y-axis) Percent Variance (%). This tells us the degree (as a percent) to which we are varying from our forecast. In this example a negative value means our production is greater than forecast, and a positive value means forecast is greater than production.
  • the Diagnostic Measure (on the x-axis) is Volume Variance (bbl). This tells us the total production impact on our forecast. This ultimately represents the impact on cash flow.
  • the wells (each well is a point) have been Categorized by “On Production Year”. We would expect older wells to have a well defined decline and thus be more predictable.

I have identified a 2010 well for further investigation. It has both a large percent variance and a large volume variance.

Variance_Forecast_1

 

2) Inform and Assess

The chart below shows that the selected well has experienced a significant downtime event in the last month that resulted in 70% downtime. The nature of this downtime event will require additional investigation.

Variance_Forecast_2

3) Investigate

The next step in the investigation may involve a chart like Lost Production Over Time or details of Workover Activity … these are examples from the blog post on Optimizing Production Performance.

 

A diagnostic workflow will evolve over time, as new information is available and you invent new visual techniques to help you Identify, Inform and Investigate opportunities. It’s important to approach these workflows as an inventory of visual perspectives that will help you navigate to the best possible insight and decision.

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Thank you to Energy Navigator for providing example forecast data.

If you have questions or comments please contact info@verdazo.com

Thanks for reading. I welcome your questions and suggestions for future blogs.

Some other blogs you may find of interest:

About VISAGE – visual analytics for the petroleum industry
VISAGE analytics software equips operators and analysts in the petroleum industry to make the most valuable and timely decisions possible. VISAGE brings together public and proprietary oil and gas data from multiple sources for easy to use interactive analysis.