How Many Months of Production Do I Need for a Reliable Forecast?
Production forecasts derived from Type-well Curves are typically based on limited data. Our desire to predict the production performance of recent wells with limited data introduces uncertainty that is difficult to quantify. There is also an industry tendency to rely on early predictors like IP90 as a comparative measure of well performance. This study includes a look-back involving more than 87,000 forecasts (Montney and Viking wells) to see how much data you need for an 80% confidence interval. It also compares how much data you need from both a Volumes(Reserves) and Value perspective.